Francesco Maestrelli vs Juan Pablo VarillasSan Marino Round of 16

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#166ATP
1538ELO
1466Clay ELO
$298kYTD
$882kCAREER
23 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLLLW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT COURT 2 DE LUIGI · 2nd on
#236ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWW
Maestrelli F.
6-7 6-4 3-6
Varillas J.
Maestrelli F.
65631
Varillas J.
77462

Juan Pablo Varillas defeated Francesco Maestrelli in the Round of 16 at the San Marino tournament on clay. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 in favor of Varillas. Both players recorded three service breaks, with Varillas having six aces and four double faults, compared to Maestrelli's 15 aces and eight double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
37%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.6
2.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
56
31
Break points saved·Clear edge
83
68
Break points won·Dominant
14
45
Deciding sets·Dominant
83
44
Tiebreaks·Dominant
80
29

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Maestrelli F.52%
Varillas J.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+35 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Clay Elo 1431
6.2Overall Elo 1538
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1440
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.52 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
81
100

Maestrelli F.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Varillas J.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw