Ye Xin Ma vs Caty Mcnally — Memphis Round of 16

Memphis · WTA · Round of 16
CHNQ
Ye Xin Ma
#181WTA
1450ELO
1441Hard ELO
27 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 1 · 2nd on
Caty Mcnally
USA6
Caty Mcnally
#70WTA
1817ELO
1731Hard ELO
$711kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWL
Xin Ma Y.
2-6 3-6
Mcnally C.
Xin Ma Y.
230
Mcnally C.
662

Caty McNally defeated Ye Xin Ma in the Round of 16 at the Memphis tournament, winning 6-2, 6-3 on hard courts. McNally and Ma hit 0 and 1 aces, respectively, while McNally committed 4 double faults to Ma's 1. McNally won 69% of her first-serve points to Ma's 39%, and converted 41% of break points to Ma's 75%, as McNally earned 7 service breaks to Ma's 3.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Xin Ma Y.Mcnally C.
1st serve in·Clear edge
57%
72%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
43%
Service points won·Even
57%
55%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
51%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.6
1.2
Double faults / match·Even
3.3
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Xin Ma Y.Mcnally C.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
57
45
Break points saved·Clear edge
54
31
Break points won·Clear edge
80
94
Deciding sets·Dominant
76
33
Tiebreaks·
—
79

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Xin Ma Y.29%
Mcnally C.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mcnally C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Xin Ma Y.
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Mcnally C.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.4Hard Elo 1441
Surface ELO
8.6+290 Hard Elo edge
0.4Overall Elo 1450
ELO gap
9.6Overall Elo 1817
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.05 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.4Won 57% in Usa (53)
Country comfort
6.1Won 69% in Usa (51)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Xin Ma Y.Mcnally C.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
81

Xin Ma Y.: 20 days rest · Mcnally C.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
32°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 54%

Draw