Mark Lajal vs Braden Shick — Vancouver Quarter-final

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
EST8
Mark Lajal
#159ATP
1589ELO
1556Hard ELO
$97kYTD
$654kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
USA
Braden Shick
#219ATP
1385ELO
1358Hard ELO
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLWLWW
Lajal M.
6-2 6-2
Shick B.
Lajal M.
662
Shick B.
220

Mark Lajal advanced to the Vancouver quarterfinals with a 6-2, 6-2 win over Braden Shick. Lajal hit 8 aces to Shick's 3 and converted 57% of his break points, compared to Shick's 0%. Lajal won 84% of his first-serve points and took 4 service breaks to Shick's 0.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Lajal M.Shick B.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
64%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
70%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.4
3.8
Double faults / match·Even
3.3
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Lajal M.66%
Shick B.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Lajal M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Lajal M.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Shick B.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.5+198 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.5Hard Elo 1358
7.5Overall Elo 1588
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1384
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.88 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.28 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Lajal M.Shick B.
Freshness·Dominant
71
100

Lajal M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 83 games (7d) · Shick B.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw