Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs Mia RisticTargu Mures Round of 16

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#417WTA
1244ELO
1222Clay ELO
19 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 1 · 1st on
#219WTA
1504ELO
1479Clay ELO
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWW
Kotliar Y.
6-2 2-6 6-7
Ristic M.
Kotliar Y.
62641
Ristic M.
26772

Mia Ristic advanced to the quarterfinals of the Targu Mures clay court tournament by defeating Yelyzaveta Kotliar in the Round of 16. Ristic won the match 2-6, 6-2, 7-6. In the match, Ristic hit 3 aces and 1 double fault, while Kotliar hit 1 ace and 10 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

03
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-28W35 Brasov 1R16clayMia Ristic6-1 6-3
2025-08-21W50 Bistrita 1R16clayMia Ristic6-2 6-1
2025-06-16W75 Zagreb 2Q16clayMia Ristic6-7(4) 6-3 7-6(2)

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
62%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
40%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
52%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
50%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
50%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.3
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.1
1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Kotliar Y.29%
Ristic M.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ristic M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.8Clay Elo 1222
Surface ELO
8.2+257 Clay Elo edge
1.8Overall Elo 1244
ELO gap
8.2Overall Elo 1504
1.6Trails 0–4 on clay
H2H
8.4Leads 4–0 on clay
6.36 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Kotliar Y.: 20 days rest · Ristic M.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
25°CClear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw