Bernard Tomic vs Karen KhachanovLos Cabos Round of 16

Los Cabos · ATP · Round of 16
#164ATP
1475ELO
1441Hard ELO
$117kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
#39ATP
1828ELO
1783Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
$23MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLWW
Tomic B.
6-2 6-4
Khachanov K.
Tomic B.
662
Khachanov K.
240

Bernard Tomic defeated Karen Khachanov 6-2, 6-4 in the Round of 16 at the Los Cabos hard-court tournament. Tomic hit 5 aces and 1 double fault, while Khachanov had 4 aces and 6 double faults. Tomic converted 50% of his break points and won 77% of his first-serve points en route to the victory.

Around the match

  • About 10 days ago I hit a bit of a brick wall. I said this was going to be my last year, so I guess I have to reassess a few things now.

    Tomic B.Fox Sports
  • Now that I won, I'm going to have to go back to the table. I'm probably going to play another 20 years.

    Tomic B.Fox Sports

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
68%
Return points won·Even
36%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.1
8.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.3
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
53
81
Break points saved·Slight edge
88
98
Break points won·Dominant
8
81
Deciding sets·Even
83
80
Tiebreaks·Even
83
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:50 UTC
Tomic B.23%
Khachanov K.77%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Khachanov K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.7Hard Elo 1441
Surface ELO
9.3+342 Hard Elo edge
0.6Overall Elo 1474
ELO gap
9.4Overall Elo 1828
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.57 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.34 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 8 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
82

Tomic B.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Khachanov K.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
18°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 93%

Draw