Rafael Jodar vs Kei Nishikori — Washington Round of 16

Washington · ATP · Round of 16
Rafael Jodar
ESP
Rafael Jodar
#11ATP
1999ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
JPN
Kei Nishikori
#479ATP
1714ELO
1680Hard ELO
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWLW
Jodar R.
6-3 6-2
Nishikori K.
Jodar R.
662
Nishikori K.
320

Rafael Jodar defeated Kei Nishikori 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the Washington tournament. Jodar hit 3 aces and converted all 3 of his break points, while Nishikori was unable to capitalize on any of his break point opportunities. Jodar won 3 service breaks in the match.

Around the match

  • Jodar continues his breakthrough season with a victory over injured Fils, reaching career-high ranking of No. 24 after winning maiden ATP title in Marrakech.

    Jodar R.tennismajors.com ↗

  • Nishikori played his first Tour-level match of the year, defeating Juncheng Shang in a three-set thriller after extended absence.

    Nishikori K.Last Word On Sports ↗

  • Nishikori is reportedly just a couple of months away from retirement and faces a challenging matchup against rising star Rafael Jodar in the Round of 16.

    Nishikori K.nypost.com ↗

  • “Kei is one of the best players of all time. He's won so many titles. It's a pleasure to play against him, a legend like Kei. I knew I had to play my game.”

    Jodar R.nextgenatpfinals.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Jodar R.Nishikori K.
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
55%
Service points won·Even
65%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
37%
Break points saved·Clear edge
62%
50%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.5
2.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Jodar R.Nishikori K.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
86
91
Break points saved·Even
91
94
Break points won·Slight edge
71
81
Deciding sets·Even
100
100
Tiebreaks·Even
93
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Jodar R.78%
Nishikori K.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jodar R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jodar R.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Nishikori K.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.4+192 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Hard Elo 1680
8.6Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
1.4Overall Elo 1714
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.56 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.35 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Jodar R.Nishikori K.
Freshness·Clear edge
60
80

Jodar R.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 94 games (7d) · Nishikori K.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw