Ammar Elamin vs Matt PonchetM15 Dublin Round of 16

M15 Dublin · ITF · Round of 16
#1421ATP
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
#784ATP
22 yrs · 196 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLLWL
Elamin A.
4-6 3-6
Ponchet M.
Elamin A.
430
Ponchet M.
662

Matt Ponchet defeated Ammar Elamin 6-4, 6-3 in the Round of 16 at the M15 Dublin hard court tournament. Ponchet hit 13 aces to Elamin's 3 and converted 43% of break points, while Elamin converted none. Ponchet won 87% of his first serves to Elamin's 74%, and he secured 3 service breaks to Elamin's 0.

Key context

  • Match story: Matt Ponchet closed it out in two sets, 6–4 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
42%
Service points won·Even
57%
54%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
29%
51%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.0
1.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.0
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 5). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Elamin A.64%
Ponchet M.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Elamin A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
86

Ponchet M.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
20°CMainly clear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 38%

Draw