Mariia Drobysheva vs Lavinia Luciano — W15 Rogaska Slatina Round of 16

W15 Rogaska Slatina · ITF · Round of 16
UKR
Mariia Drobysheva
#1255WTA
19 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWLLL
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
ITA7
Lavinia Luciano
#940WTA
19 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWLW
Drobysheva M.
3-6 6-1 1-6
Luciano L.
Drobysheva M.
3611
Luciano L.
6162

Lavinia Luciano defeated Mariia Drobysheva 6-3, 1-6, 6-1 in the Round of 16 at the W15 Rogaska Slatina tournament. Luciano hit 2 aces and 4 double faults, winning 62% of her first serves and converting 56% of break points. She won 5 service breaks to Drobysheva's 4.

Key context

  • Match story: Lavinia Luciano closed it out in three sets, 6–3 1–6 6–1.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-18W35 BistritaQ16clayMariia Drobysheva2-6 6-2 11-9

Statistics

This season
Drobysheva M.Luciano L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
56%
53%
2nd serve points won·Even
40%
41%
Service points won·Even
50%
49%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
51%
43%
Aces / match·Even
0.7
0.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.1
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Drobysheva M.41%
Luciano L.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Luciano L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Drobysheva M.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Luciano L.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.23 of last 7 on clay
Surface form
3.32 of last 6 on clay
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
28°CMainly clear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw