Francesca Jones vs Lucija Ciric BagaricTargu Mures Round of 16

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#104WTA
1619ELO
1621Clay ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 1 · 2nd on
#380WTA
1257ELO
1253Clay ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWWLL
Jones F.
7-5 6-3
Ciric Bagaric L.
Jones F.
762
Ciric Bagaric L.
530

Francesca Jones defeated Lucija Ciric Bagaric in the Round of 16 at the Targu Mures clay court tournament, winning 7-5, 6-3. The match saw Jones and Ciric Bagaric each hit three aces, with Jones committing five double faults to Ciric Bagaric's two. Jones won 68% of her first-serve points to Ciric Bagaric's 48%, and converted 55% of her break points to Ciric Bagaric's 100%, with Jones securing six service breaks to Ciric Bagaric's four.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-02-25W35 Hammamet 2FclayLucija Ciric Bagaric2-1
2024-02-17W35 Hammamet 1SFclayLucija Ciric Bagaric6-4 0-6 7-6(5)

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
55%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
46%
Service points won·Even
55%
55%
Return points won·Even
46%
44%
Break points saved·Even
55%
51%
Aces / match·Even
1.6
1.6
Double faults / match·Even
3.6
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Jones F.82%
Ciric Bagaric L.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Jones F. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.3
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
9.6+368 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.4Clay Elo 1253
9.5Overall Elo 1619
ELO gap
0.5Overall Elo 1257
2.2Trails 0–2 on clay
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on clay
10.010 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.75 of last 10 on clay
10.012-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
100
100

Jones F.: 18 days rest · Ciric Bagaric L.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
30°CClear
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 30%

Draw