Sandro Kopp vs Federico ArnaboldiM25 Bolzano Quarter-final

M25 Bolzano · ITF · Quarter-final
#280ATP
1437ELO
1428Clay ELO
26 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
clay
#523ATP
1328ELO
1289Clay ELO
26 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWLW
Kopp S.
6-1 6-3
Arnaboldi F.
Kopp S.
662
Arnaboldi F.
130

Sandro Kopp defeated Federico Arnaboldi in the quarterfinals of the M25 Bolzano tournament on clay, winning 6-1, 6-3. Kopp converted 40% of his break points and secured four service breaks to Arnaboldi's zero. Kopp and Arnaboldi were even in aces with three each, but Kopp had fewer double faults, one to three, and a higher first-serve win percentage, 92% to 68%.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
71%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
50%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
37%
42%
Break points saved·Even
58%
57%
Aces / match·Even
3.5
4.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.6
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
4
39
Break points saved·Clear edge
64
41
Break points won·Even
16
15
Deciding sets·Dominant
5
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
2
80

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Kopp S.68%
Arnaboldi F.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kopp S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.7+139 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.3Clay Elo 1289
6.4Overall Elo 1437
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1328
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.66 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.04 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 5
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
94

Kopp S.: 15 days rest · Arnaboldi F.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CMainly clear
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 32%

Draw