Aleksandar Vukic vs Lorenzo MusettiWashington Round of 16

Washington · ATP · Round of 16
#99ATP
1630ELO
1597Hard ELO
$366kYTD
$3.9MCAREER
30 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 2nd on
#15ATP
1869ELO
1804Hard ELO
$961kYTD
$15MCAREER
24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLWLWW
Vukic A.
3-6 7-5 3-6
Musetti L.
Vukic A.
3731
Musetti L.
6562

Lorenzo Musetti defeated Aleksandar Vukic in the Round of 16 at the Washington tournament, advancing with a 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 victory on hard courts. Musetti and Vukic tied with eight aces apiece, while Musetti had three double faults to Vukic's two. Musetti converted 31% of break points and won 77% of first-serve points, compared to Vukic's 38% and 58%, respectively; Musetti secured five service breaks to Vukic's three.

Around the match

  • Musetti's comeback after two months showed impressive form in his win over Arnaldi, with hopes to stay injury-free and peak at the US Open.

  • Musetti returns after a four-month absence since Rome, having skipped Roland Garros and Wimbledon, with limited match fitness from a retirement against Arnaldi.

    Musetti L.The Grandstand

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Lorenzo Musetti closed it out in three sets, 6–3 5–7 6–3.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-01-31PuneR16hardLorenzo Musetti7-6 3-6 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
61%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
55%
67%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.7
4.4
Double faults / match·Even
2.0
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
27
89
Break points saved·Even
90
94
Break points won·Dominant
7
81
Deciding sets·Dominant
15
99
Tiebreaks·Even
89
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Vukic A.17%
Musetti L.83%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Musetti L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.4Hard Elo 1597
Surface ELO
7.6+206 Hard Elo edge
2.0Overall Elo 1630
ELO gap
8.0Overall Elo 1869
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
8.78 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.07 of last 10 on hard
9.07-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
75
70

Vukic A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 52 games (7d) · Musetti L.: played today · 3 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°CMainly clear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 55%

Draw