Niels Mcdonald vs Jurij RodionovBonn Round of 16

Bonn · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#531ATP
1351ELO
1360Clay ELO
18 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 4th on
#134ATP
1636ELO
1586Clay ELO
$206kYTD
$1.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 191 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLLL
Mcdonald N.
6-7 3-6
Rodionov J.
Mcdonald N.
6330
Rodionov J.
7762

Jurij Rodionov advanced to the quarterfinals at the Bonn tournament, defeating Niels Mcdonald in the Round of 16. Rodionov won in straight sets, 7-6, 6-3. In the match, Rodionov hit 5 aces and converted 57% of his break points, while Mcdonald hit 2 aces and converted 25%.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
59%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
60%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.4
5.7
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Mcdonald N.13%
Rodionov J.87%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rodionov J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.2Clay Elo 1360
Surface ELO
7.8+227 Clay Elo edge
1.4Overall Elo 1351
ELO gap
8.6Overall Elo 1636
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.15 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
78
100

Mcdonald N.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d) · Rodionov J.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
37°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 18%

Draw