Yosuke Watanuki vs Hayato MatsuokaVancouver Round of 32

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#416ATP
1541ELO
1531Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 1st on
#314ATP
1361ELO
1332Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLWLW
Watanuki Y.
4-6 2-6
Matsuoka H.
Watanuki Y.
420
Matsuoka H.
662

Hayato Matsuoka defeated Yosuke Watanuki in the Round of 32 of the Vancouver hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 6-2 in favor of Matsuoka. Key stats included 2 aces and 4 double faults for Matsuoka, compared to 6 aces and 4 double faults for Watanuki; Matsuoka won 75% of his first-serve points, while Watanuki won 66%; Matsuoka converted 50% of his break points, Watanuki 67%; Matsuoka achieved 5 service breaks, Watanuki 2.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
52%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
48%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.6
3.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.0
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Watanuki Y.54%
Matsuoka H.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.5+199 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.5Hard Elo 1332
7.2Overall Elo 1540
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1361
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.47 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.14 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
63

Watanuki Y.: 21 days rest · Matsuoka H.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 95 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
18°CMainly clear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 78%

Draw