Colin Sinclair vs Koki MatsudaSamsun Round of 16

Samsun · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#509ATP
31 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 2 · 1st on
#451ATP
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWWLWL
Sinclair C.
3-6 3-6
Matsuda K.
Sinclair C.
330
Matsuda K.
662

Koki Matsuda defeated Colin Sinclair 6-3, 6-3 in the Round of 16 at the Samsun hard-court tournament. Matsuda converted 45% of his break points and secured five service breaks, compared to Sinclair's two. Matsuda hit three aces and two double faults, while Sinclair had five aces and six double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
62%
56%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
31%
38%
Break points saved·Even
61%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.7
3.1
Double faults / match·Even
1.1
0.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Sinclair C.33%
Matsuda K.67%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Matsuda K. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
6.1
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
81
86

Sinclair C.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Matsuda K.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
21°COvercast
Wind 25 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw