Emerson Jones vs Carol ZhaoVancouver Round of 32

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#131WTA
1671ELO
1664Hard ELO
18 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
#578WTA
1390ELO
1400Hard ELO
31 yrs · 165 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLLWLW
Jones E.
6-3 4-6 6-4
Zhao C.
Jones E.
6462
Zhao C.
3641

Emerson Jones defeated Carol Zhao in the Round of 32 of the Vancouver hard-court tournament, winning 6-3, 4-6, 6-4. Jones served 2 aces and committed 15 double faults, while Zhao had 4 aces and 10 double faults. Jones converted 36% of break points and broke Zhao's serve 9 times, while Zhao converted 80% of break points and broke Jones' serve 8 times.

Around the match

  • Zhao will play in the second-to-last event of her career as she plans to retire following the National Bank Open.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Emerson Jones closed it out in three sets, 6–3 4–6 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
37%
Service points won·Even
56%
52%
Return points won·Even
44%
41%
Break points saved·Even
56%
56%
Aces / match·Even
1.7
1.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.4
5.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Jones E.88%
Zhao C.12%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Jones E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.3+264 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.7Hard Elo 1400
8.5Overall Elo 1671
ELO gap
1.5Overall Elo 1390
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 6
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
95
100

Jones E.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Zhao C.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21°CMainly clear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw