August Holmgren vs Braden Shick — Vancouver Round of 32

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
DEN
August Holmgren
#226ATP
1566ELO
1517Hard ELO
$132kYTD
$648kCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLWL
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 1 · 2nd on
USAQ
Braden Shick
#219ATP
1385ELO
1358Hard ELO
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWLWW
Holmgren A.
7-6 3-6 3-6
Shick B.
Holmgren A.
77331
Shick B.
65662

Braden Shick defeated August Holmgren in the Round of 32 of the Vancouver hard-court tournament. Shick won the match 6-7, 6-3, 6-3. Shick had 3 aces and 7 double faults, while converting 30% of break points and winning 80% of first-serve points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Holmgren A.Shick B.
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
54%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
8.0
3.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.5
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Holmgren A.66%
Shick B.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Holmgren A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Holmgren A.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Shick B.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.0+159 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1358
7.3Overall Elo 1566
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 1384
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Holmgren A.Shick B.
Freshness·
—
100

Shick B.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
19°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw