Denis Shapovalov vs Rinky HijikataLos Cabos Round of 32

Los Cabos · ATP · Round of 32
#48ATP
1771ELO
1775Hard ELO
$749kYTD
$15MCAREER
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
#95ATP
1748ELO
1694Hard ELO
$601kYTD
$4.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWWWW
Shapovalov D.
2-6 6-3 6-2
Hijikata R.
Shapovalov D.
2662
Hijikata R.
6321

Denis Shapovalov defeated Rinky Hijikata in the Round of 32 at the Los Cabos tournament on hard courts. Shapovalov won the match 2-6, 6-3, 6-2. He hit 6 aces and 9 double faults, converted 36% of break points, and made 77% of first-serve points, compared to Hijikata's 1 ace, 7 double faults, 38% break points converted, and 65% first-serve points won; Shapovalov had 4 service breaks to Hijikata's 3.

Around the match

  • Shapovalov returns to tour after rib and shoulder injuries sustained at Queen's Club and Wimbledon during grass season, creating significant uncertainty about his fitness level.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-01-02Adelaide 1R32hardDenis Shapovalov2-6 6-4 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
62%
Return points won·Even
35%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.7
4.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.6
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
79
46
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
86
Break points won·Dominant
70
12
Deciding sets·Dominant
91
60
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
71
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC
Shapovalov D.54%
Hijikata R.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+81 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Hard Elo 1694
5.3Overall Elo 1771
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1748
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.56 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
75
70

Shapovalov D.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Hijikata R.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
18°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 94%

Draw