Naoya Honda vs Keaton HanceM25 Edwardsville Round of 32

M25 Edwardsville · ITF · Round of 32
#668ATP
1240ELO
1236Hard ELO
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
#862ATP
18 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLLWLWW
Honda N.
4-6 2-6
Hance K.
Honda N.
420
Hance K.
662

Keaton Hance defeated Naoya Honda 6-4, 6-2 in the Round of 32 at the M25 Edwardsville tournament. Hance converted 50% of his break points, compared to 11% for Honda, and won 78% of his first-serve points to 59% for his opponent. Hance secured four service breaks to Honda's one en route to the win.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
54%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
35%
Break points saved·Clear edge
53%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.2
0.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Honda N.71%
Hance K.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Honda N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.55 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Draw