Alexandre Muller vs Marco CecchinatoSan Marino Round of 16

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#136ATP
1665ELO
1628Clay ELO
$426kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#173ATP
1576ELO
1546Clay ELO
$167kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWLW
Muller A.
4-6 6-2 7-5
Cecchinato M.
Muller A.
4672
Cecchinato M.
6251

Alexandre Muller defeated Marco Cecchinato in the Round of 16 at the San Marino tournament on clay, winning 4-6, 6-2, 7-5. Muller and Cecchinato were even in aces, 3-3, and double faults, 5-2. Muller converted 50% of break points, compared to Cecchinato's 20%, and broke Cecchinato's serve four times to Cecchinato's two.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
65%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Even
62%
66%
Aces / match·Even
2.9
3.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.7
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
72
39
Break points saved·Slight edge
90
79
Break points won·Dominant
46
13
Deciding sets·Dominant
95
59
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
84
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Muller A.51%
Cecchinato M.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.0+82 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Clay Elo 1546
6.1Overall Elo 1664
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1576
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.51 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.07 of last 10 on clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
100
71

Muller A.: 15 days rest · Cecchinato M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw