Luca Castagnola vs Vladyslav OrlovM25 Bolzano Round of 16

M25 Bolzano · ITF · Round of 16
#799ATP
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
clay
#432ATP
31 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLWWW
Castagnola L.
1-6 2-6
Orlov V.
Castagnola L.
120
Orlov V.
662

Vladyslav Orlov defeated Luca Castagnola 6-1, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the M25 Bolzano clay court tournament. Orlov converted 71% of his break points and won 75% of his first-serve points to secure the win. He hit four aces and committed two double faults, compared to Castagnola's three aces and three double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
59%
59%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
47%
57%
Aces / match·Even
1.8
2.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.7
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (14 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Castagnola L.31%
Orlov V.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Orlov V. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.92 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.94 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 5
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
100

Castagnola L.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw