Andres Andrade vs Alexei PopyrinVancouver Round of 32

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#256ATP
1505ELO
1427Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
#128ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$573kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
27 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWLLLL
Andrade A.
7-5 3-6 6-1
Popyrin A.
Andrade A.
7362
Popyrin A.
5611

Andres Andrade defeated Alexei Popyrin in the Round of 32 of the Vancouver hard-court tournament, winning 7-5, 3-6, 6-1. Andrade served 2 aces and committed 4 double faults, while Popyrin had 7 aces and 7 double faults. Andrade won 69% of his first-serve points and converted 50% of his break points, ultimately securing 6 service breaks to Popyrin's 4.

Key context

  • Match story: Andres Andrade came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–5 3–6 6–1.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
31%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.5
10.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.7
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
44
49
Break points saved·Dominant
53
97
Break points won·Dominant
50
1
Deciding sets·Clear edge
45
68
Tiebreaks·Even
91
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Andrade A.28%
Popyrin A.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Popyrin A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.8Hard Elo 1427
Surface ELO
8.2+254 Hard Elo edge
2.0Overall Elo 1505
ELO gap
8.0Overall Elo 1741
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.02 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 6
Win streak
0.0Lost last 5
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
61
78

Andrade A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 104 games (7d) · Popyrin A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw