Elmer Moller vs Marko Topo — Bonn Round of 32

Bonn · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
DEN7
Elmer Moller
#172ATP
1609ELO
1593Clay ELO
$155kYTD
$727kCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWLLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
GERQ
Marko Topo
#338ATP
1463ELO
1399Clay ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLWW
Moller E.
6-4 7-5
Topo M.
Moller E.
672
Topo M.
450

Elmer Moller defeated Marko Topo in the Round of 32 at the Bonn clay court tournament. Moller won in straight sets, 6-4, 7-5. Moller converted 83% of his break points and secured five service breaks to Topo's three.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Moller E.Topo M.
1st serve in·Even
57%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
61%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
43%
Service points won·Even
54%
55%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
49%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.8
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.4
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Moller E.Topo M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
69
28
Break points saved·Slight edge
81
87
Break points won·Dominant
58
4
Deciding sets·Dominant
81
12
Tiebreaks·Even
82
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Moller E.66%
Topo M.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Moller E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Moller E.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Topo M.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.4+194 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Clay Elo 1399
6.8Overall Elo 1609
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1463
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
4.55 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Moller E.Topo M.
Freshness·Slight edge
87
94

Moller E.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Topo M.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw