Daniel Milavsky vs Quinn VandecasteeleVancouver Qualifying Final

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#310ATP
1349ELO
1337Hard ELO
24 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
#483ATP
1383ELO
1368Hard ELO
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLLW
Milavsky D.
6-2 0-6 6-3
Vandecasteele Q.
Milavsky D.
6062
Vandecasteele Q.
2631

Daniel Milavsky won the Vancouver hard-court final, defeating Quinn Vandecasteele 6-2, 0-6, 6-3. Milavsky served one ace and committed five double faults, while Vandecasteele had six aces and six double faults. Milavsky converted 31% of break points and broke Vandecasteele's serve five times, compared to Vandecasteele's four breaks.

Key context

  • Match story: Daniel Milavsky closed it out in three sets, 6–2 0–6 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
40%
Break points saved·Clear edge
76%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.3
5.4
Double faults / match·Even
3.6
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Milavsky D.59%
Vandecasteele Q.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Milavsky D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.6Hard Elo 1337
Surface ELO
5.4+31 Hard Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1348
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1383
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.83 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
72
84

Milavsky D.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 74 games (7d) · Vandecasteele Q.: 7 days rest · 2 matches, 45 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
17°CDrizzle
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 89%

Draw