Alex Michelsen vs Mackenzie McdonaldWashington Round of 32

Washington · ATP · Round of 32
#41ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
$797kYTD
$4.7MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 4 · 2nd on
#144ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWWWLL
Michelsen A.
6-4 7-5
Mcdonald M.
Michelsen A.
672
Mcdonald M.
450

Alex Michelsen defeated Mackenzie McDonald 6-4, 7-5 in the Round of 32 at the Washington tournament. Michelsen hit 9 aces to McDonald's 5 and converted 40% of his break points, compared to McDonald's 20%. Michelsen won 71% of his first-serve points and took 4 service breaks to McDonald's 2.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-08-12Cincinnati MastersQ2hardAlex Michelsen6-3 6-2
2023-07-17NewportQFgrassAlex Michelsen6-3 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
55%
Service points won·Even
65%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
63%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.4
4.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
62
29
Break points saved·Slight edge
92
87
Break points won·Dominant
32
73
Deciding sets·Dominant
80
7
Tiebreaks·Dominant
83
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Michelsen A.79%
Mcdonald M.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Michelsen A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
8.0
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.6+206 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.4Hard Elo 1604
7.7Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
2.3Overall Elo 1606
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
9.39 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on hard
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.8Won 79% in Usa (53)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
80
92

Michelsen A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d) · Mcdonald M.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
31°CMainly clear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw