Hayato Matsuoka vs James TrotterVancouver Qualifying Final

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#314ATP
1361ELO
1332Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
#437ATP
1414ELO
1380Hard ELO
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWLL
Matsuoka H.
3-6 4-6
Trotter J.
Matsuoka H.
340
Trotter J.
662

James Trotter won the Vancouver hard-court final, defeating Hayato Matsuoka 6-3, 6-4. Trotter hit 5 aces to Matsuoka's 2 and converted 67% of his break points, compared to 0% for Matsuoka. Trotter had a 92% first-serve win percentage and secured 2 service breaks to Matsuoka's 0.

Key context

  • Match story: James Trotter closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
35%
Break points saved·Even
56%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.7
9.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.2
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Matsuoka H.50%
Trotter J.50%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1332
Surface ELO
5.6+49 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1361
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1414
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.54 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
82

Matsuoka H.: 8 days rest · 5 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
19°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 77%

Draw