Hayu Kinoshita vs Kyoka Okamura — Vancouver Round of 32
Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 5th on
Kinoshita H.6-1 6-4
Okamura K.
Kinoshita H.
662
Okamura K.
140
Hayu Kinoshita defeated Kyoka Okamura in the Round of 32 of the Vancouver hard-court tournament, winning 6-1, 6-4. Kinoshita hit 2 double faults and converted 86% of her break points, while Okamura committed 6 double faults and converted 50% of her break points. Kinoshita won 6 service breaks to Okamura's 3.
Key context
- Match story: Hayu Kinoshita dropped just 5 games past Kyoka Okamura.
Head to head
0–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-23 | W100 Tokyo 1 | Q16 | hard | Kyoka Okamura | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2023-04-13 | W25 Osaka | R16 | hard | Kyoka Okamura | 3-6 6-0 6-3 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
44%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Even
46%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
46%
Aces / match·Even
1.6
1.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.4
2.3
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTCKinoshita H.78%
Okamura K.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Kinoshita H. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
6.8+144 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO3.2Hard Elo 1388
6.4Overall Elo 1546
ELO gap3.6Overall Elo 1435
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
6.17 of last 10 on hard
Surface form1.42 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak0.0Lost last 6
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21°CMainly clear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 65%