Daria Kasatkina vs Anna KalinskayaWashington Round of 32

Washington · WTA · Round of 32
#68WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 3rd on
#21WTA
1907ELO
1863Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$7.3MCAREER
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWWL
Kasatkina D.
4-6 1-6
Kalinskaya A.
Kasatkina D.
410
Kalinskaya A.
662

Anna Kalinskaya defeated Daria Kasatkina in the Round of 32 at the Washington tournament, winning 6-4, 6-1 on hard courts. Kalinskaya hit 2 aces and 5 double faults, while Kasatkina hit 1 ace and 8 double faults. Kalinskaya converted 86% of her break points and won 6 service breaks to Kasatkina's 2.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-08AdelaideR16hardDaria Kasatkina5-7 6-4 7-5
2022-10-17Guadalajara 2R16hardAnna Kalinskaya6-2 2-6 6-3
2022-01-03Melbourne 2R32hardDaria Kasatkina6-1 3-0
2018-07-23MoscowR32hardDaria Kasatkina6-1 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
70%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
59%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
39%
47%
Service points won·Even
53%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
50%
45%
Break points saved·Even
53%
51%
Aces / match·Even
2.0
2.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.3
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
53
75
Break points saved·Clear edge
21
38
Break points won·Even
100
96
Deciding sets·Even
91
92
Tiebreaks·Dominant
16
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Kasatkina D.35%
Kalinskaya A.65%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kalinskaya A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.7Hard Elo 1757
Surface ELO
6.3+106 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1795
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1907
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
6.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.36 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
80
70

Kasatkina D.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Kalinskaya A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
32°COvercast
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw