Kokoro Isomura vs Karl PolingVancouver Qualifying Semi-final

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#571ATP
1206ELO
1176Hard ELO
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWLWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 2nd on
#491ATP
1314ELO
1320Hard ELO
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLLW
Isomura K.
3-6 4-6
Poling K.
Isomura K.
340
Poling K.
662

Karl Poling advanced to the final of the Vancouver hard-court tournament by defeating Kokoro Isomura 6-3, 6-4 in the semifinals. Poling hit 3 aces and 4 double faults, winning 77% of his first-serve points and converting 15% of break points. He converted two of his service breaks to secure the win.

Key context

  • Match story: Karl Poling closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
62%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Even
1.8
1.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (14 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Isomura K.55%
Poling K.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1176
Surface ELO
6.8+144 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1206
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1314
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.04 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.56 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
85
83

Isomura K.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Poling K.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
20°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 78%

Draw