Vilius Gaubas vs Luka Pavlovic — San Marino Round of 32

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
LTU3
Vilius Gaubas
#123ATP
1581ELO
1535Clay ELO
$279kYTD
$763kCAREER
21 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 2 DE LUIGI · 4th on
FRA
Luka Pavlovic
#207ATP
1510ELO
1467Clay ELO
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLWL
Gaubas V.
6-1 7-5
Pavlovic L.
Gaubas V.
672
Pavlovic L.
150

Vilius Gaubas defeated Luka Pavlovic in the Round of 32 at the San Marino tournament on clay, winning 6-1, 7-5. Gaubas served 2 aces and committed 1 double fault, while Pavlovic had 3 aces and 2 double faults. Gaubas converted 67% of his break points and won 4 service breaks, compared to Pavlovic's 100% conversion rate and 1 service break.

Key context

  • Match story: Vilius Gaubas came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Gaubas V.Pavlovic L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
54%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
65%
77%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
47%
Service points won·Even
60%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Even
65%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.2
10.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.4
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gaubas V.Pavlovic L.
Clutch Rating·Even
57
60
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
93
Break points won·Dominant
52
24
Deciding sets·Clear edge
86
71
Tiebreaks·Dominant
8
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Gaubas V.63%
Pavlovic L.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Gaubas V. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gaubas V.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Pavlovic L.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.8+68 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Clay Elo 1467
5.9Overall Elo 1581
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1510
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.43 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Surface transition
6.0Hard → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gaubas V.Pavlovic L.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
86

Gaubas V.: 15 days rest · Pavlovic L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 55%

Draw