Federico Coria vs Francesco Forti — San Marino Round of 32

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Federico Coria
ARGPR
Federico Coria
#839ATP
1537ELO
1515Clay ELO
34 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 3 · 2nd on
Francesco Forti
ITALL
Francesco Forti
#363ATP
1399ELO
1372Clay ELO
27 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLWLL
Coria F.
4-6 2-6
Forti F.
Coria F.
420
Forti F.
662

Francesco Forti defeated Federico Coria in the Round of 32 at the San Marino tournament on clay, winning 6-4, 6-2. Forti served effectively, hitting 4 aces and committing just 1 double fault, while converting 30% of break points and securing 3 service breaks. Coria managed only 1 ace and 4 double faults, and was unable to convert any break points.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Coria F.Forti F.
1st serve in·Even
66%
65%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
60%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
53%
Service points won·Clear edge
55%
68%
Return points won·Even
33%
36%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.6
7.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.5
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (8 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Coria F.Forti F.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
50
31
Break points saved·Dominant
33
67
Break points won·Dominant
76
2
Deciding sets·Dominant
81
50
Tiebreaks·Even
67
66

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Coria F.40%
Forti F.60%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Forti F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Coria F.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Forti F.
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.8+144 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Clay Elo 1372
6.7Overall Elo 1537
ELO gap
3.3Overall Elo 1399
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.73 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Coria F.Forti F.
Freshness·
—
90

Forti F.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw