Ashlyn Krueger vs Katie BoulterWashington Round of 32

Washington · WTA · Round of 32
#56WTA
1791ELO
1723Hard ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 5th on
#71WTA
1831ELO
1795Hard ELO
30 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWWWW
Krueger A.
3-6 6-2 6-2
Boulter K.
Krueger A.
3662
Boulter K.
6221

Ashlyn Krueger defeated Katie Boulter in the Round of 32 at the Washington tournament, coming back from a set down to win 3-6, 6-2, 6-2. Krueger hit 6 aces to Boulter's 1 and converted 75% of her break points, compared to Boulter's 33%. Krueger won 6 service breaks to Boulter's 4.

Around the match

  • Boulter is cutting her honeymoon short to compete in Washington, continuing her comeback year after finishing outside the top 100 last season.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-05-24Roland GarrosQ64clayAshlyn Krueger6-2 2-6 7-6(6)
2022-08-25US OpenQ64hardAshlyn Krueger6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
43%
Service points won·Even
59%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Even
60%
56%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.7
2.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.4
5.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
59
56
Break points saved·Slight edge
39
30
Break points won·Even
85
84
Deciding sets·Even
87
83
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
44
56

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Krueger A.55%
Boulter K.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 1723
Surface ELO
5.9+71 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1791
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1831
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
5.15 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
5.6Won 61% in Usa (97)
Country comfort
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
94
81

Krueger A.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Boulter K.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
30°CPartly cloudy
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw