Johan Nikles vs Alex BarrenaBonn Round of 32

Bonn · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#420ATP
1319ELO
1306Clay ELO
29 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 ·
clay
MATCH COURT 3 · 1st on
#259ATP
1375ELO
1347Clay ELO
$100kYTD
$266kCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLLW
Nikles J.
6-3 3-6 3-6
Barrena A.
Nikles J.
6331
Barrena A.
3662

Alex Barrena defeated Johan Nikles in the Round of 32 at the Bonn clay court tournament. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 in favor of Barrena. Barrena hit one ace and one double fault, while Nikles had no aces and two double faults; Barrena converted 44% of break points and broke Nikles' serve four times, compared to Nikles' two breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
45%
Service points won·Even
57%
55%
Return points won·Slight edge
46%
39%
Break points saved·Even
54%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.5
2.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
7
30
Break points saved·Clear edge
22
43
Break points won·Clear edge
30
54
Deciding sets·Even
29
27
Tiebreaks·
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Nikles J.53%
Barrena A.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Clay Elo 1306
Surface ELO
5.5+40 Clay Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1319
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1375
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.56 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.13 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
93
88

Nikles J.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Barrena A.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 23 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 45%

Draw