Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shang — Washington Round of 32

Washington · ATP · Round of 32
JPNWC
Kei Nishikori
#479ATP
1714ELO
1680Hard ELO
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 4th on
CHNPR
Juncheng Shang
#228ATP
1746ELO
1698Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLWLW
Nishikori K.
6-7 6-3 6-4
Shang J.
Nishikori K.
63662
Shang J.
77341

Kei Nishikori defeated Juncheng Shang in the Round of 32 at the Washington tournament, winning 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 on hard courts. Nishikori converted 22% of break points and secured two service breaks, while Shang had no break conversions and zero service breaks. Nishikori hit four aces and zero double faults, compared to Shang's six aces and two double faults.

Around the match

  • Former champion returning to Washington for first time since 2021; announced he will retire at end of season.

    Nishikori K.Last Word On Sports ↗

  • Nishikori announced his retirement after this season, marking the end of a legendary career as he competes in what may be his final Washington appearance.

    Nishikori K.New York Post ↗

  • Shang has struggled significantly since a strong 2024 finish, limited to just 14 matches in 2025 due to a foot injury and minimal competitive play over the past two years.

    Shang J.New York Post ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-12-30Hong KongSFhardKei Nishikori4-3
2024-09-18ChengduR32hardJuncheng Shang6-4 6-4
2023-07-24AtlantaR16hardKei Nishikori6-4 7-6

Statistics

This season
Nishikori K.Shang J.
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
37%
29%
Break points saved·Clear edge
50%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.4
4.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Nishikori K.Shang J.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
91
60
Break points saved·Even
94
91
Break points won·Dominant
81
16
Deciding sets·Clear edge
100
84
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
98
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Nishikori K.51%
Shang J.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nishikori K.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Shang J.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Hard Elo 1680
Surface ELO
5.2+18 Hard Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1714
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1746
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.15 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
7.0Won 83% in Usa (29)
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Nishikori K.Shang J.
Freshness·Slight edge
83
91

Nishikori K.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d) · Shang J.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
31°CMainly clear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw