Juan Pablo Varillas vs Francesco FortiSan Marino Qualifying Final

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#236ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 3 · 2nd on
#363ATP
1399ELO
1372Clay ELO
27 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWLL
Varillas J.
6-4 3-6 7-6
Forti F.
Varillas J.
63772
Forti F.
46651

Juan Pablo Varillas won the San Marino final, defeating Francesco Forti 6-4, 3-6, 7-6. Both players had 10 aces, 1 double fault, and 4 service breaks. Varillas converted 40% of break points, while Forti converted 44%.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
36%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.7
7.2
Double faults / match·Even
1.5
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
31
31
Break points saved·Even
68
67
Break points won·Dominant
45
2
Deciding sets·Slight edge
44
50
Tiebreaks·Dominant
29
66

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Varillas J.53%
Forti F.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.7+59 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Clay Elo 1372
5.5Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1399
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
90

Varillas J.: 18 days rest · Forti F.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw