Aidan Mayo vs Roger Pascual FerraLos Cabos Qualifying Final

Los Cabos · ATP · Qualifying Final
#616ATP
1380ELO
1359Hard ELO
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
hard
#682ATP
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWW
Mayo A.
6-1 6-4
Pascual Ferra R.
Mayo A.
662
Pascual Ferra R.
140

Aidan Mayo won the Los Cabos final, defeating Roger Pascual Ferra 6-1, 6-4. Mayo hit 3 aces and 2 double faults, winning 79% of his first serves and converting 67% of break points. He converted 4 service breaks to Pascual Ferra's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
57%
71%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
49%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
50%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.3
0.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.4
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC
Mayo A.52%
Pascual Ferra R.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.24 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.17 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
79
74

Mayo A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Pascual Ferra R.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 85%

Draw