Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Johan NiklesBonn Qualifying Final

Bonn · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#281ATP
1412ELO
1404Clay ELO
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
clay
MATCH COURT 3 · 2nd on
#420ATP
1319ELO
1306Clay ELO
29 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLLWW
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
6-3 6-2
Nikles J.
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
662
Nikles J.
320

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida won the final of the Bonn tournament on clay, defeating Johan Nikles 6-3, 6-2. Pucinelli De Almeida converted 40% of his break points and broke Nikles' serve four times, compared to Nikles' one service break. Pucinelli De Almeida and Nikles were even in aces and double faults, with both players recording zero aces and two double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
49%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
48%
46%
Break points saved·Even
55%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.3
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
5
7
Break points saved·Clear edge
36
22
Break points won·Clear edge
43
30
Deciding sets·Clear edge
11
29
Tiebreaks·
1

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Pucinelli De Almeida M.63%
Nikles J.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Pucinelli De Almeida M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.2+98 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Clay Elo 1306
6.2Overall Elo 1412
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1319
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
8.08 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.77 of last 10 on clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
59
90

Pucinelli De Almeida M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 91 games (7d) · Nikles J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
21°CMainly clear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 62%

Draw