Miguel Tobon vs Bernard TomicLos Cabos Qualifying Semi-final

Los Cabos · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
#449ATP
1328ELO
1301Hard ELO
20 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLLWL
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
hard
#164ATP
1475ELO
1441Hard ELO
$117kYTD
$6.8MCAREER
33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLLWWW
Tobon M.
7-5 4-6 6-7
Tomic B.
Tobon M.
74651
Tomic B.
56772

Bernard Tomic defeated Miguel Tobon in the semifinals of the Los Cabos tournament, prevailing 5-7, 6-4, 7-6 on hard courts. Tomic hit 8 aces and 8 double faults, winning 77 percent of his first serves, while converting 45 percent of break points and securing 5 service breaks. Tobon recorded 5 aces and 5 double faults, winning 72 percent of his first serves, converting 56 percent of break points, and also securing 5 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.7
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Tobon M.52%
Tomic B.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1301
Surface ELO
6.8+140 Hard Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1328
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1474
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 5
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
66
92

Tobon M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 89 games (7d) · Tomic B.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
16°CMainly clear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 84%

Draw