Maria Sara Popa vs Amarissa Kiara Toth — Targu Mures Qualifying Semi-final

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
ROU
Maria Sara Popa
#430WTA
1412ELO
1395Clay ELO
21 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWLL
1 — 0
Sets
Retired
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 1 · 2nd on
HUN8
Amarissa Kiara Toth
#382WTA
1418ELO
1399Clay ELO
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWWWL
Sara Popa M.
6-3 3-1
Kiara Toth A.
Sara Popa M.
631
Kiara Toth A.
310

Maria Sara Popa advanced to the final of the Targu Mures clay court tournament, defeating Amarissa Kiara Toth in the semifinals. Toth retired during the match, trailing 6-3, 3-1. Popa converted 71% of her break points and won 62% of her first-serve points en route to the win.

Head to head

1–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-12W35 Antalya 1QFclayMaria Sara Popa1-6 6-4 6-2

Statistics

This season
Sara Popa M.Kiara Toth A.
1st serve in·Even
64%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
56%
2nd serve points won·Even
43%
43%
Service points won·Even
56%
52%
Return points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Break points saved·Even
54%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.5
0.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.9
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Sara Popa M.41%
Kiara Toth A.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kiara Toth A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sara Popa M.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Kiara Toth A.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Clay Elo 1395
Surface ELO
5.1+4 Clay Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1412
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1418
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.15 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw