Alex Michelsen vs Jacob FearnleyBloomfield Hills Final

Bloomfield Hills · CHALLENGER · Final
#41ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
$797kYTD
$4.7MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#107ATP
1600ELO
1565Hard ELO
$342kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWWWWWW
Michelsen A.
7-6 6-3
Fearnley J.
Michelsen A.
7762
Fearnley J.
6430

Alex Michelsen won the Bloomfield Hills final, defeating Jacob Fearnley 7-6, 6-3. Michelsen hit 10 aces to Fearnley's 2 and converted 80% of his break points, compared to Fearnley's 60%. Michelsen won 4 service breaks to Fearnley's 3.

Around the match

  • Fearnley reaches Bloomfield Hills final after impressive comeback streak, including saving six match points at Newport last week.

    Fearnley J.ZooTennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-30WimbledonR128grassJacob Fearnley6-3 6-4 2-6 3-6 2-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
60%
Return points won·Even
37%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
63%
55%
Aces / match·Even
6.4
5.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.6
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
62
85
Break points saved·Even
92
96
Break points won·Dominant
32
70
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
99
Tiebreaks·Even
83
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Michelsen A.77%
Fearnley J.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Michelsen A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.1+245 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.9Hard Elo 1565
7.8Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
2.2Overall Elo 1600
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
8.58 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.05 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
10.09-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
6.7Won 79% in Usa (52)
Country comfort
7.3Won 88% in Usa (26)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
80
90

Michelsen A.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d) · Fearnley J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CPartly cloudy
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 64%

Draw