Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather WatsonWashington Qualifying Semi-final

Washington · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
#83WTA
1693ELO
1671Hard ELO
24 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 1st on
#442WTA
1572ELO
1548Hard ELO
34 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWLL
Rakhimova K.
6-7 6-7
Watson H.
Rakhimova K.
62640
Watson H.
77772

Heather Watson defeated Kamilla Rakhimova 7-6, 7-6 in the semifinals of the Washington tournament. Watson served eight aces to Rakhimova's three and converted 67 percent of her break points, compared to Rakhimova's 31 percent. Both players earned four service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
42%
Service points won·Even
55%
59%
Return points won·Even
45%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.7
4.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
5.5
5.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (37 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
8
4
Break points saved·Slight edge
7
15
Break points won·Dominant
77
49
Deciding sets·Even
15
17
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
2
11

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Rakhimova K.65%
Watson H.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rakhimova K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.5+123 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1548
6.5Overall Elo 1693
ELO gap
3.5Overall Elo 1572
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.75 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
82
100

Rakhimova K.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Watson H.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 73%

Draw