Carlos Lopez Montagud vs Bogdan PavelM25 Denia Semi-final

M25 Denia · ITF · Semi-final
#565ATP
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
clay
#516ATP
27 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWLWWWWW
Lopez Montagud C.
2-6 4-6
Pavel B.
Lopez Montagud C.
240
Pavel B.
662

Bogdan Pavel defeated Carlos Lopez Montagud 6-2, 6-4 in the semifinals of the M25 Denia tournament on clay. Pavel converted 50% of his break points and won 74% of his first-serve points, while Lopez Montagud converted 33% of his break points and won 54% of his first-serve points. Pavel secured four service breaks to Lopez Montagud's one, and had one ace and one double fault compared to Lopez Montagud's two aces and two double faults.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-02M15 XativaFclayBogdan Pavel6-2 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·
70%
1st serve points won·
67%
2nd serve points won·
53%
Service points won·
63%
Return points won·
38%
Break points saved·
49%
Aces / match·
2.2
Double faults / match·
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Lopez Montagud C.57%
Pavel B.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.66 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.23 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
32°CClear
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw