Maks Kasnikowski vs Otto VirtanenTampere Semi-final

Tampere · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#234ATP
1400ELO
1418Clay ELO
23 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
#116ATP
1706ELO
1532Clay ELO
$214kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLWWWL
Kasnikowski M.
2-6 2-6
Virtanen O.
Kasnikowski M.
220
Virtanen O.
662

Otto Virtanen defeated Maks Kasnikowski in the semifinals of the Tampere tournament on clay, winning 6-2, 6-2. Virtanen hit 5 aces and 1 double fault, while Kasnikowski had 0 of both. Virtanen converted 40% of his break points and won 4 service breaks to Kasnikowski's 0.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
66%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.0
9.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.3
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
14
11
Break points saved·Dominant
56
82
Break points won·Clear edge
16
1
Deciding sets·Slight edge
19
29
Tiebreaks·Dominant
38
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Kasnikowski M.45%
Virtanen O.55%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.6Clay Elo 1418
Surface ELO
6.4+114 Clay Elo edge
1.2Overall Elo 1400
ELO gap
8.8Overall Elo 1706
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.17 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.84 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
97
90

Kasnikowski M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Virtanen O.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 76%

Draw