Shintaro Mochizuki vs Liam Draxl — Winnipeg Semi-final

Winnipeg · CHALLENGER · Semi-final

JPN1

Shintaro Mochizuki

#112ATP

1475ELO

1425Hard ELO

$243kYTD

$1.6MCAREER

23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWLWWWWLW

0 — 2

Sets

Saturday, 25 July 2026 · 14:55

hard

STADIUM · 3rd on

CAN

Liam Draxl

#216ATP

1592ELO

1565Hard ELO

$201kYTD

$642kCAREER

24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLWWWLWWL

Mochizuki S.

0-6 3-6

Draxl L.

Mochizuki S.

030

Draxl L.

662

Liam Draxl defeated Shintaro Mochizuki in the semifinals of the Winnipeg hard-court tournament. Draxl won the match in straight sets, 6-0, 6-3.

Key context

Match story: Liam Draxl handed Shintaro Mochizuki a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–3 win.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Mochizuki S.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Draxl L.

Draxl L.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Mochizuki S.

Serve advantage — Draxl L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mochizuki S.Draxl L.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Mochizuki S.Draxl L.

1st serve in·Clear edge

51%

64%

1st serve points won·Even

68%

2nd serve points won·Even

47%

Service points won·Even

58%

60%

Return points won·Even

39%

40%

Break points saved·Even

58%

56%

Aces / match·Slight edge

3.4

4.6

Double faults / match·Dominant

4.9

2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure

Mochizuki S.Draxl L.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Clear edge

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC

Mochizuki S.56%

Draxl L.44%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Mochizuki S.

5.1

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Draxl L.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

3.3Hard Elo 1425

Surface ELO

6.7+140 Hard Elo edge

3.5Overall Elo 1475

ELO gap

6.5Overall Elo 1592

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.66 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

7.37 of last 10 on hard

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Mochizuki S.Draxl L.

Freshness·Even

Mochizuki S.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Draxl L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Mediumbalanced pace

SlowFast

Weather

30°CClear

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 39%

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Liam Draxl — Winnipeg Semi-final

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard

Statistics

Clutch

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard