James Mccabe vs Alex Bolt — Washington Qualifying Semi-final

Washington · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final
AUS
James Mccabe
#243ATP
1532ELO
1481Hard ELO
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLLLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 5 · 1st on
Alex Bolt
AUS10
Alex Bolt
#162ATP
1588ELO
1541Hard ELO
$137kYTD
$2.2MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWLLWLL
Mccabe J.
6-7 6-7
Bolt A.
Mccabe J.
66620
Bolt A.
78772

Alex Bolt defeated James McCabe 7-6, 7-6 in the semifinals of the Washington tournament. Bolt served 8 aces to McCabe's 6 and committed 2 double faults to McCabe's 6. Both players converted 1 service break, with Bolt winning 82% of his first serves to McCabe's 74%.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Mccabe J.Bolt A.
1st serve in·Even
64%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
76%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
67%
64%
Return points won·Even
33%
34%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
9.0
7.2
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Mccabe J.Bolt A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
37
32
Break points saved·Even
85
81
Break points won·Slight edge
9
3
Deciding sets·Slight edge
71
66
Tiebreaks·Dominant
12
37

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Mccabe J.63%
Bolt A.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mccabe J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mccabe J.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Bolt A.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1481
Surface ELO
5.7+59 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1532
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1588
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
3.94 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mccabe J.Bolt A.
Freshness·Even
100
100

Mccabe J.: 16 days rest · Bolt A.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
22°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 73%

Draw