Luca Van Assche vs Hugo GastonEstoril Semi-final

Estoril · ATP · Semi-final
#54ATP
1701ELO
1639Clay ELO
$411kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
22 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
clay
ESTADIO MILLENNIUM · 2nd on
#97ATP
1622ELO
1566Clay ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLLWWW
Van Assche L.
6-4 7-5
Gaston H.
Van Assche L.
672
Gaston H.
450

Luca Van Assche defeated Hugo Gaston in the semifinals of the Estoril tournament on clay, winning 6-4, 7-5. Van Assche hit 2 aces and 5 double faults, while Gaston had 0 aces and 0 double faults. Van Assche converted 33% of break points and broke Gaston's serve 3 times, compared to Gaston's 1 service break and 25% break point conversion.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-03-30MarrakechR32clayLuca Van Assche6-4 7-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
53%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
40%
Break points saved·Even
63%
60%
Aces / match·Even
3.1
2.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
31
57
Break points saved·Slight edge
77
87
Break points won·Dominant
7
35
Deciding sets·Clear edge
50
72
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
65
82

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Van Assche L.56%
Gaston H.44%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.9+72 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Clay Elo 1566
6.0Overall Elo 1701
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1622
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
8.99 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.05 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
81
92

Van Assche L.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Gaston H.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CMainly clear
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw