Chase Ferguson vs Duje Markovina — M15 Brisbane Quarter-final

M15 Brisbane · ITF · Quarter-final
AUS8
Chase Ferguson
#650ATP
27 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 24 July 2026 ·
hard
CRO
Duje Markovina
#1009ATP
18 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLWLWL
Ferguson C.
3-6 6-1 3-6
Markovina D.
Ferguson C.
3631
Markovina D.
6162

Duje Markovina defeated Chase Ferguson in the quarterfinals of the M15 Brisbane tournament, winning 6-3, 1-6, 6-3. Markovina served nine aces to Ferguson's zero and committed two double faults to Ferguson's zero. Both players converted 2 service breaks each and had similar first-serve win percentages, with Markovina at 69% and Ferguson at 65%.

Key context

  • Match story: Duje Markovina closed it out in three sets, 6–3 1–6 6–3.

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-02-17M25 Burnie 1Q16hardChase Ferguson3-6 7-5 10-5
2024-11-19M25 Caloundra 1Q16hardDuje Markovina6-3 2-6 10-8

Statistics

This season
Ferguson C.Markovina D.
1st serve in·Clear edge
71%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
45%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Clear edge
38%
24%
Break points saved·Even
64%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.6
8.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.0
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Ferguson C.53%
Markovina D.47%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ferguson C.
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Markovina D.
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.43 of last 6 on hard
Surface form
1.91 of last 6 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
19°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw