Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Martin EtcheverryKitzbuhel Semi-final

Kitzbuhel · ATP · Semi-final
#13ATP
1889ELO
1822Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 24 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
#31ATP
1812ELO
1767Clay ELO
$1.4MYTD
$6.9MCAREER
27 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLWLL
Bublik A.
6-3 6-4
Etcheverry T.
Bublik A.
662
Etcheverry T.
340

Alexander Bublik advanced to the Kitzbuhel final with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the semifinals. Bublik and Etcheverry each hit 7 aces, but Bublik converted two of six break points and won 80 percent of his first serves to secure the victory. Bublik won the match with two service breaks to Etcheverry's zero.

Around the match

  • I think I played a great match. I prepared well, and I executed the tactics that we had before the match, so I'm really happy with the outcome and the way that I played.

    Bublik A.Tennis Now

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR32hardAlexander Bublik7-6 7-6 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
55%
Service points won·Even
68%
67%
Return points won·Even
33%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
58%
Aces / match·Dominant
11.9
5.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 39). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
81
52
Break points saved·Even
98
95
Break points won·Dominant
54
10
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
84
Tiebreaks·Dominant
91
57

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Bublik A.57%
Etcheverry T.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.7+55 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Clay Elo 1767
6.0Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1812
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.35 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
94

Etcheverry T.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw