Maks Kasnikowski vs Hynek BartonTampere Quarter-final

Tampere · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#234ATP
1400ELO
1418Clay ELO
23 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWLLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Friday, 24 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 2nd on
#268ATP
1570ELO
1535Clay ELO
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLWL
Kasnikowski M.
5-7 6-4 7-5
Barton H.
Kasnikowski M.
5672
Barton H.
7451

Maks Kasnikowski defeated Hynek Barton in the quarterfinals of the Tampere tournament on clay, winning 5-7, 6-4, 7-5. Kasnikowski hit 4 aces and 1 double fault, while Barton had 7 aces and 2 double faults. Kasnikowski converted 42% of break points and broke Barton's serve 5 times, compared to Barton's 4 service breaks and 44% break point conversion rate.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
51%
Service points won·Even
66%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.0
6.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.3
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
14
38
Break points saved·Clear edge
56
79
Break points won·Slight edge
16
6
Deciding sets·Dominant
19
71
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
38
28

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Kasnikowski M.48%
Barton H.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.5Clay Elo 1418
Surface ELO
6.5+117 Clay Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1400
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1570
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.87 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
97
80

Kasnikowski M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Barton H.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
20°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw