Luka Pavlovic vs Mert AlkayaSegovia Quarter-final

Segovia · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#207ATP
1510ELO
1464Hard ELO
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 24 July 2026 ·
hard
PISTA PEDRO MUÑOZ · 1st on
#298ATP
1358ELO
1337Hard ELO
26 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLWWLL
Pavlovic L.
6-1 6-2
Alkaya M.
Pavlovic L.
662
Alkaya M.
120

Luka Pavlovic defeated Mert Alkaya in the quarterfinals of the Segovia tournament, winning 6-1, 6-2 on hard courts. Pavlovic hit 4 aces and 2 double faults, while Alkaya had 0 aces and 5 double faults. Pavlovic converted 50% of his break points and won 5 service breaks to Alkaya's 0.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
54%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
77%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
63%
Return points won·Even
34%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
71%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.4
4.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.3
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Pavlovic L.51%
Alkaya M.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.6+127 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1337
6.9Overall Elo 1510
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1358
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
76

Pavlovic L.: 20 days rest · Alkaya M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw