Yosuke Watanuki vs Toby Samuel — Winnipeg Round of 16

Winnipeg · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Yosuke Watanuki
JPN
Yosuke Watanuki
#416ATP
1541ELO
1531Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWLLL
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM · 4th on
GBR2
Toby Samuel
#113ATP
1745ELO
1729Hard ELO
$217kYTD
$332kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLWW
Watanuki Y.
0-6 1-6
Samuel T.
Watanuki Y.
010
Samuel T.
662

Toby Samuel defeated Yosuke Watanuki in the Round of 16 at the Winnipeg hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 6-0, 6-1 in Samuel's favor.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Watanuki Y.Samuel T.
1st serve in·Clear edge
52%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
48%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.6
3.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Watanuki Y.39%
Samuel T.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Samuel T. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Watanuki Y.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Samuel T.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.5Hard Elo 1530
Surface ELO
7.5+198 Hard Elo edge
2.4Overall Elo 1540
ELO gap
7.6Overall Elo 1745
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
10.010 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Watanuki Y.Samuel T.
Freshness·Even
100
100

Watanuki Y.: 21 days rest · Samuel T.: 21 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 39%

Draw